Total orders for Q2 2019 have gone down 19% with respect to Q1 and around 24% if compared to the figures of Q2 2018. Moreover, industrial production in Europe seem to be facing a downward trend, while European manufacturers trust in the market is also decreasing.
Economic factors are indeed behind this apparent change of cycle, but geopolitical issues also hold sway over this. One of these is well known, as it has been at the centre of the European political debate since June 2016: Brexit.
They are also CECIMO’s ninth largest exporter, providing more than €560 million to the total sales abroad. These numbers show that the UK is an economic cornerstone of our project. If bureaucracy and potential tariffs were introduced between European and British machine tool industries, the impact in the sector would be negative.
Whatever the outcome, the UK will remain a strong strategic member within CECIMO, and it will support the association’s efforts to ensure that trade will continue as smoothly as possible.
Recent efforts by the EU to guarantee free movement of industrial products between the Single Market and the UK, such as the regulation Union General Export Authorisation for the export of certain dual-use items from the Union to the UK, are pointing in the right direction, but, should the UK ultimately leave the EU, a more stable solution would be a wide-ranging exit agreement.
In 2018, CECIMO national producers held significant trade surpluses with China (a positive balance of €2.7 billion) and the US (€1.7 billion). Considering these are two of the largest markets in the world, this trade war could possibly diminish CECIMO’s competitive edge.
Another relevant scenario is the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In 2014, Russia was sanctioned by the US and the EU over its political interference in the neighbouring Ukraine. These measures, however, have not settled the dispute and have hampered European businesses, especially companies that trade in the Russian industrial markets.
Russia is currently CECIMO’s fifth largest export market, with a 4.6% share over total exports. In 2008, CECIMO exports to Russia amounted to 10.3%, yet the instruments employed to sanction the country have in part cut the share to the level we see today.
The current Iran conflict also poses difficulties for a number of machine tool builders. Machine tool exports to Iran have plummeted since 2010, when they reached their peak (€157 million), to a mere €4.2 million in 2018.
The restriction on trade of dual-use goods has limited CECIMO’s business potential in the Iranian market, and it will surely continue holding back Iran’s transition to a manufacturing-based economy.
In this context, CECIMO is willing to cooperate to ensure transparent trade relations with these and other countries, and it urges the EU to use effective instruments that do not seriously hinder European machine tool builders’ position abroad. Dealing with these challenges will not be an easy task, but CECIMO will support all efforts to overcome them.
On 28th June the EU and South American trade bloc representatives reached a political agreement to sign a new bi-regional trade deal. One of its main features is the removal of certain high customs duties, which will particularly benefit key industrial sectors, such as cars (35%), car parts (14%-18%) and machinery (14%-20%).
In 2018, EU exports in goods to Mercosur were worth €45 billion and imports, around €43 billion. We can only expect trade flows to increase notably if the agreement is finally signed and duly implemented.
Mexico is CECIMO’s fourth largest export market in terms of value, covering around 4.5% of the total exports share in 2018. In terms of total value, CECIMO exports to the Mexican market grew considerably: from more than €275 million in 2009 to more than €592 million in 2018.
Mexico is a full member of NAFTA, and, given the agreement reached in principle between the EU and Mexico in April 2018, CECIMO could benefit from general North American trade relations and gain access to the American market.
As for Vietnam, the trade and investment agreement signed in June 2019 will allow European manufacturers to access the EU’s 16th trade partner in goods and the EU's second largest trading partner in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The potential of this market is clear: while in 2007, machine tool exports to Vietnam were worth just €13 million, in 2018 they reached €139.4 million.
Marcus Burton, chairman of CECIMO’s Economic Committee, concluded: “CECIMO supports the political guidelines of the Von der Leyen Commission, as they pursue comprehensive trade strategies for the neighbouring regions of the EU, a new EU-US trade partnership, and, above all, a reform of the WTO trade protection mechanisms and rules”.
Beyond trade, our members are demonstrating how the manufacturing businesses continuously improve their productivity by investing in advanced digital systems and highly innovative technologies, even when economic perspectives seem unclear.
CECIMO urges the European Union to support Industry 4.0 with clear and concise policies and by counteracting technophobic discourses. Investing in new technologies is key to future success, even in a difficult economic period, and this edition of EMO Hannover 2019 shows it more than ever.
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