UK factories resume stockpiling in lead up to Brexit deadline

Laser cutting
Laser cutting

British manufacturers resumed stockpiling in September in preparation for the October deadline for Brexit, according to a new survey.


The IHS Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI rose to 48.3 in September from the previous month's six-and-a-half year low of 47.4. This increase beat the market consensus of 47.0.

This latest reading still remained below the neutral 50.0 mark for five successive months, its longest sequence below that mark since mid-2009.

Although the contraction was shallower than the prior survey month, levels of output, new orders, new export business and employment nonetheless fell further.

Stocks of purchases and input buying volumes also rose for the first time in recent months, as some companies restarted their Brexit preparations.

Commenting on the PMI data, Seamus Nevin, chief economist at Make UK, said: “At the end of this month the UK is set to leave the EU and as the uncertainty grows, levels of output, new orders, new export business, investment and employment are continuing to fall. Were it not for the emergency stockpiling activities that took place ahead of our original EU exit date last March, the UK manufacturing sector would already be in recession. Stocks of purchases and input buying volumes have now started to rise again, as companies recommence their costly no deal Brexit contingency activities.

“Job losses are widespread across the sector as its continued weakness has seen employment fall at the most severe rate since the peak of the Global Financial Crisis. There are now roughly 126,000 fewer people working in the industry than there were in June 2016.

“UK manufacturers are also losing customers and production continued to contract in September, as companies cut back output in response to further reductions in new orders received.

“While global markets are also faltering, with orders from the USA and Asia are shrinking, and growth in the Eurozone - the UK’s biggest export market - declining slightly following last month’s improvement, anxiety about the UK’s post-Brexit trade rules is clearly the biggest factor affecting British manufacturers right now.”

Markit Economics www.markiteconomics.com

Make UK www.makeuk.org

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Make UK

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